Strategic call to cushion demographic changes

Editor's note: The State Council has called for efforts to stabilize the newborn population in China. China Economic Times spoke to Yang Zekun, a research fellow at the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, to discuss the measures needed to achieve this goal. Below are excerpts of the interview. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

The size of a nation's population influences the availability of its labor force and the depth of its domestic market. While a sustained and fast fall in birth rates may not result in immediate labor shortages, it will eventually translate into an accelerated decline in the working-age population and a structural contraction of the consumer market. Therefore, the call for stabilizing the newborn population is a strategic decision made at a time when demographic trends are still adjustable.

It should be noted that efforts to improve the population's quality cannot substitute for sustaining its size, and vice versa. A population that shrinks continuously and rapidly, even if its structure improves, is unlikely to maintain a complete industrial system. It is also unlikely to support innovation and domestic demand.

Stabilizing the newborn population can also help improve the future age structure of the country's total population and prevent a sharp increase in the old-age dependency ratio, the ratio of the elderly population to the working-age population.

To achieve this stabilization, an integrated approach is required, focusing on four key areas: lowering childcare costs, improving childcare services, ensuring sufficient time for families and changing mindsets.

Lowering childcare costs is fundamental. China has rolled out a nationwide childcare subsidy program that provides an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan ($540) for each child under the age of 3. What matters is not the amount disbursed in a year but the stability of expectations among families, with subsidies adjusted to economic development and changes in price levels.

Improving childcare services helps reduce the burden on families. In 2025, China added 890,000 affordable nursery care slots. Additionally, starting from the autumn semester of that year, public kindergartens have waived the care and education fees for children in their final year before primary school. The country continues to streamline children's homework and off-campus training. International experience shows that sharing part of people's childcare responsibilities through public services effectively stabilizes birth rates.

Ensuring sufficient time for families involves addressing the work-family conflict. Mechanisms should be developed to share childbearing costs through arrangements such as offering tax incentives to enterprises with a significant proportion of female employees and sharing maternity pay among stakeholders.

Changing mindsets means altering the deep-rooted beliefs about marriage and childbearing. Local authorities across China are working to curb exorbitant betrothal gifts, reform wedding customs and remove barriers that prevent people from marrying or having children.

Stabilizing China's newborn population requires patience and strategic resolve. Long-term institutional investment is needed to ensure balanced development of the population.