US forces' exit from Iraq signals start of reshuffle in geopolitics, analysts say

BAGHDAD — The US-led international coalition concluded its military mission to combat the Islamic State in Iraq on Wednesday, following a withdrawal from Iraq's Erbil Air Base. The pullout coincided with Iraq's Sovereignty Day, a celebration of national independence and dignity.

The move ends a turbulent two-decade US military presence defined by invasion, occupation, withdrawal, and redeployment, a cycle that fundamentally reshaped Iraq's destiny, fueled regional instability, and exacted a heavy toll on Washington.

Analysts view the withdrawal as the outcome of US strategic realignments and shifting regional dynamics, signaling the end of an old era and the start of a complex geopolitical reshuffle.

"The orderly departure of coalition forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the successful conclusion of the military mission that defeated IS in Iraq," the Pentagon's chief spokesman said in a statement on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump also hailed the withdrawal as a "victory" for Washington.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on Thursday announced June 30 as a deadline for armed factions to turn over their weapons to the state, following the end of the US-led coalition's mission.

While the media described the US forces' departure as low-profile, experts emphasize its deep historical resonance.

In 2003, Washington invaded Iraq without UN authorization under the pretext of searching for weapons of mass destruction, toppling Saddam Hussein's rule and plunging the nation into chaos.

When US forces hastily withdrew in 2011 under domestic and diplomatic pressure, the resulting security vacuum enabled terrorism to spread, leading to the rise of IS in 2014, which seized vast swathes of territory in Iraq. Washington then assembled an international coalition and returned to Iraq. Despite Iraq declaring victory over IS in late 2017, thousands of US troops remained.

Rising public and governmental demand for sovereign control led to a September 2024 agreement between Iraq and the United States formalizing the coalition's withdrawal timeline.

Analysts note the pullout reflects pragmatic considerations for both sides. For Baghdad, it marks a transition from external reliance to sovereign security management. For Washington, the diminished IS threat, alongside frequent attacks on US troops by pro-Iranian militias, reduced the military rationale for staying. The pullout also aligns with US domestic electoral commitments to end "endless wars" and reallocate military resources.

Deep scars

The US invasion left deep scars. According to Statista, a global statistical database, from 2003 to 2021, about 209,000 Iraqi civilians died in wars and violent conflicts. About 9.2 million Iraqis became refugees or were forced to leave their homeland. In Fallujah, high rates of cancer and birth defects persist due to the past use of depleted uranium and white phosphorus munitions by US forces.

While Iraq framed the departure as a milestone for national development, structural security challenges remain in the war-torn country.

Iraq is under great pressure from the US administration to disarm Iran-backed Shiite militias, many of which are defying state efforts to bring them under control, creating potential instability in the country, said Jumaa Mohammed, a politics professor at Iraq's Tikrit University.

Physical troop withdrawal does not mean an end to Washington's influence. Ding Long, a Chinese expert on Middle East affairs at Shanghai International Studies University, notes that the United States is shifting from direct military occupation to leveraged influence through bilateral security agreements, energy partnerships, and financial mechanisms.

Notably, Iraq's foreign exchange earnings from oil exports have been deposited in accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York since 2003, giving Washington lingering economic leverage by controlling the supply of US dollars, said Li Ruiheng, an expert at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of Peking University.

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