El Nino set to log record sea surface temperature

A strengthening El Nino in the equatorial Pacific is forecast to become the strongest since modern records began, with its peak sea surface temperature index expected to reach between 3.2 and 3.5 C around November, the National Climate Center said on Tuesday.

The El Nino event emerged in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in May, and sea surface temperatures have continued to rise rapidly, said Chao Qingchen, head of the center.

Since September, the index has risen above 3 C for the first time, Chao said. The projected peak of 3.2 to 3.5 C would be much higher than the previous record of 2.8 C recorded during the 2014-16 super El Nino, according to the center.

Three other super El Nino events have been recorded since modern monitoring began, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2014-16. Both the current sea temperature index and the rate of warming are higher than during those events at comparable stages.

"The rapidly strengthening El Nino has already had a notable impact on China's climate during this year's flood season," Chao said.

Precipitation in central and eastern parts of the country generally shows a pattern of more rain in the north and south and less in between.

Flooding has been more severe than drought in many areas.

The climate phenomenon is expected to continue affecting China through the autumn and winter and into spring and summer next year, Chao said.

In October and November, precipitation is expected to be above average across much of Central and eastern China, increasing the risks of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides and mudslides.

The autumn rainy season in western China is also expected to bring more precipitation overall, with wetter conditions in the south and drier conditions in the north.

By contrast, parts of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region and the northwestern regions could receive 20 to 50 percent less precipitation than normal, raising the risk of meteorological drought and forest fires.

One or two typhoons are expected to make landfall in or affect China in October, with storms generally stronger than normal and moving westward or northwestward. Southern and eastern coastal areas face elevated risks of heavy rain, flooding, strong winds and storm surges.

For the winter from December through February, temperatures across China are expected to be generally above average, although cold waves could occur slightly more frequently, leading to sharp swings between warmer and colder conditions.

Overall precipitation is also expected to be above normal, and forecasters urged the public to prepare for periods of severe cold waves as well as low temperatures, rain, snow and freezing conditions in southern China.

The El Nino is expected to weaken rapidly and end in spring or summer 2027, but its effects on China's climate could persist, Chao said.

"Extreme weather and climate events are expected to become more frequent and temperatures will be remarkably above average," she said, adding that summer heat waves in 2027 could also be stronger and affect a wider area.

zhaoyimeng@chinadaily.com.cn