AfD's victory signals far-right surge set to reshape Europe, experts say

The far-right party's resounding victory in a recent German state election reflects a broader rightward drift across Germany and Europe, experts said.

With crucial elections looming in major European nations next year, the continued rise of such parties is poised to profoundly reshape the continent's geopolitical landscape and the very fabric of the European Union, they said.

The record victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in the Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sept 6 has sent shock waves across Germany. The AfD captured an unprecedented 43.8 percent of the vote in the region, making it possible for the party to run a German state for the first time. Former German chancellor Angela Merkel described the outcome as "a turning point, a real turning point in German history".

Wu Huiping, deputy director of the German Studies Center at Tongji University, said that while the Saxony-Anhalt vote is subnational, its implications for Germany's political landscape are profound.

She noted the far-right AfD's nearly 44 percent state-level win was almost unthinkable for postwar Germany, which has remained vigilant against far-right forces.

"This marks the emergence of a far-right party as the largest party after a state election and a possible coalition with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, which would effectively breach the 'firewall' against the far-right."

She said the AfD's steady rise has already pushed Germany's political ecosystem in a more conservative direction. "Even left-origin parties like the BSW now adopt tougher stances on immigration and emphasize national identity, signaling a conservative drift within the left camp. Meanwhile, mainstream parties have moved right on issues like immigration, further tilting the country's political center of gravity to the right."

This unprecedented far-right triumph in Germany immediately sent ripples of concern across Europe. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez described the Saxony-Anhalt election as a warning of the "far-right threat" gaining traction throughout the continent. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot emphasized the urgent need to address the public anger and despair that fuel the popularity of radical movements.

Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University's Academy of Regional and Global Governance, said the swift reactions from European mainstream parties and governments indicate the rise of the far right is no longer just an issue for a German local election, nor solely a German problem, but a pan-European one.

He cautioned that influential European countries like France and Spain would soon face fierce competition from far-right parties as they head to the polls next year.

"Current trends suggest that far-right parties are already gaining influence and consolidating their support in these countries. For mainstream parties and governments, this contest means not only that their long-standing dominance may gradually erode, potentially reducing them to marginal players, but also that the core principles they uphold could come under severe strain."

Elections due

Jian Junbo, a professor and director of the Center for China-Europe Relations at Fudan University, echoed this, suggesting that the AfD's decisive victory in Germany will instill considerable confidence in far-right parties in other countries to win their respective elections and create a powerful "demonstration effect" across Europe, signaling the rapid rise of far-right parties across the continent.

Next year, several EU countries, collectively representing over half of the bloc's population, are due to hold national elections, including France, Greece, Poland and Spain. For mainstream parties in these countries, the outlook appears far from rosy.

A research study led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, for the PopuList survey, shows that European votes for far-right parties have grown nearly fivefold since the mid-1990s.

Experts agree the sustained rise of far-right forces in Europe stems from a complex interplay of severe internal and external challenges facing the continent.

"Economic problems, livelihood issues, and geopolitical dilemmas are deeply intertwined, yet mainstream parties have largely failed to offer effective solutions. As long as Europe's overall environment, including its economic and geopolitical situation, does not ease or change, the soil for far-right politics to grow will remain," Cui said.

Citing Europe's unresolved issues, Wu said, "It's imaginable that right-wing populist or far-right parties could still rise to power in more countries, further pushing Europe toward conservatism."

She outlined several profound shifts, anticipating possible drifting to more "national-interest-first" policies and immigration restrictions. Wu also suggested that euro-skeptic far-right parties changed their strategy about the EU and are trying to reform the EU from within, promoting a "national conservatism" centered on national interest and sovereignty. Furthermore, she said, "The far right's pro-Russia leanings could have impacts on the continent's security architecture."

Cui highlighted the broader geopolitical ramifications, saying that the rightward-shifting political atmosphere in Europe would align its political trajectory more closely with that of the United States.

"If far-right parties in various countries adopt national-interest-first policies after taking office, it would first weaken the momentum of European integration and sow greater trans-Atlantic discord, as prioritizing domestic interests over collective solutions would lead to increased trans-Atlantic conflicts."