Global food system faces mounting resilience crisis

Global cereal production is on track for its second-largest harvest on record in 2026, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Yet, the data also show that world food prices rose in August to their highest since late 2022.

The seemingly contradictory figures reveal the global food system's ongoing "resilience crisis", a systemic fragility that persists even when aggregate supply appears adequate. Although there is no widespread systemic food shortage currently, global food security is under significant pressure, driven mainly by high energy prices, extreme weather events and conflicts, experts said.

"We are seeing pressure on production, agricultural inputs and trade logistics at the same time," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the FAO.

On the agricultural production front, the frequent extreme weather witnessed this summer and a strengthening El Nino weather pattern are threatening crops worldwide.

The UN World Food Programme's early analysis projects that the 2026-27 El Nino could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.

Beyond climate, conflict is placing comprehensive pressure on the food system. According to the World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook report issued in April, the war in the Middle East has significantly disrupted global commodity markets, with energy prices projected to surge 24 percent this year and fertilizer prices expected to rise about 31 percent. Fertilizer affordability is set to fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farmer incomes and jeopardizing future crop yields.

Zhang Shuai, an associate professor at the School of Government at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said conflicts also directly destabilize food production. He cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example, which has left millions of hectares of Ukrainian arable land abandoned and much of its agricultural infrastructure destroyed.

Such conflicts also jeopardize food supply security, Zhang added. "Whether it's the Russia-Ukraine conflict or the US-Iran war, both have disrupted global food supply chains by affecting critical international shipping routes. The Ukraine conflict's effect is direct, curtailing grain exports from both nations."

A report from JPMorgan, titled Food Security is National Security: A Compounding Storm, warns that global food costs could climb 5 percent in the first half of 2027, suggesting that the next wave of global inflation may not originate at the fuel station but at the grocery shelf.

Torero said that compared with previous global food crises, "the 2026 shock is potentially more complex because it simultaneously affects the inputs needed to produce the next crop".

"The Strait of Hormuz is not simply another grain-export corridor," he said.

"Around 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait; the Gulf region accounts for approximately 30 to 35 percent of global urea supply and 50 percent of sulfur. When the crisis escalated, tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent, and an estimated 3 to 4 million metric tons of fertilizer trade per month were stalled."

The implications are profound. "When wheat disappears from one exporter, another producer can eventually plant more wheat," Torero said. "You cannot create new natural gas, ammonia, urea or sulfur production capacity within a planting season. These are capital-intensive industries, so short-term supply elasticity is very low.

"That is why the crop calendar matters so much. FAO has warned that if the disruption persists beyond roughly three months, the effect moves from prices into fertilizer application, planting decisions and eventually yields in the following harvests," he added.

Long Wenjin, an associate professor at the College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, said the true danger lies not just in the combination of energy prices, extreme weather and conflicts, but in their cascading amplification across the entire system.

Purchasing power

This extends from agricultural inputs and food production to trade, transport, financial markets and fiscal capacity, ultimately affecting household purchasing power, Long said. "This dynamic can rapidly convert localized production shortfalls or shipping disruptions into escalating food prices, fiscal strains and widespread livelihood difficulties."

This looming food security crisis differs significantly from previous ones, being "far more systemic, characterized by stronger cross-market linkages, long-term implications, and increasingly politicized dynamics", he said.

"With multiple key waterways and related markets simultaneously under pressure, it's coalescing into a perfect storm sweeping across the global agri-food system," he said.

Experts noted that the current crisis has exposed structural weaknesses within the global food system, as they anticipate high volatility in global food markets and a continued upward trend in commodity price levels in the coming months.

Torero of the FAO highlighted the excessive dependence on choke points. "Black Sea disruption affects cereals; Hormuz affects energy, fertilizers and freight. A localized geopolitical event can therefore propagate throughout the global agri-food system."

Another critical weakness is "input dependency", he said. "Food security depends not only on grain stocks but on fertilizer, energy, seeds, water and finance. When those inputs become unavailable or unaffordable, the effect appears in the next harvest."

Long said the fundamental vulnerability exposed by this crisis is the global food system's long-standing pursuit of low costs and high efficiency without retaining adequate safety margins or alternative capacities for extreme shocks.

To navigate this crisis, experts propose a dual approach focusing on immediate actions and long-term systemic reforms.

In the short term, Long said, the priority must be ensuring the smooth flow of food, fertilizer, seeds and other critical agricultural products and inputs.

Over the long run, Torero said "the fundamental shift" should be from paying for losses after a crisis to financing prevention before those losses become irreversible.

Long echoed the view, saying the crisis response model should shift from single-commodity supply management to integrated food production system governance that coordinates agricultural production, energy, trade, nutrition, finance and social welfare.

"Ultimately, the global food crisis can only be resolved by maintaining peace, promoting development, and upholding open cooperation," he said.