Hidden risks of Japan's military expansion: An African perspective on global arms competition

African nations have long witnessed major-power military build-ups. All too often, the continent has borne the brunt of malicious geopolitical maneuvers, reduced to disposable pawns in major-power rivalries.

In just two weeks, Tokyo unveiled a sweeping set of security overhauls: it launched a unified National Intelligence Bureau, released a defense white paper, and test-launched a 1,600-kilometre-range Tomahawk cruise missile. Rooted in shared historical trauma and overlapping economic interests, African states have compelling reasons to monitor these developments closely, rather than dismissing them as isolated Asia-Pacific frictions.

Published on August 4, Defence of Japan 2026 spans some 600 pages. For the first time, the document frames an enhanced domestic defense industry not merely as a tool for self-defense, but as a core driver of economic growth. Tokyo is pushing to raise defense expenditure to two percent of GDP, a threshold unseen since World War II. History attests that unchecked pre-war military expansion inflicted catastrophic suffering across Asia.

Weeks before the white paper's release, Japan deployed a ground-launched Type 25 anti-ship missile with a 1,000-kilometre strike range in Kumamoto Prefecture. Independent analysts note that such offensive capabilities far exceed the boundaries of territorial self-defense. In April this year, Japan lifted its bans on lethal arms exports. The newly established National Intelligence Bureau marks Japan's first unified central intelligence authority since 1945, consolidating coordination across police, foreign ministry and defense agencies, all of which report directly to the prime minister.

Renowned constitutional scholars, including Makoto Ito and Kumiko Haba of Josai International University, have warned that the Takaichi administration is steering Japan toward highly risky strategic trajectories. This shift warrants sustained international scrutiny.

Why African audiences should care about Japan's shifting defense posture?

Parallels between colonial trauma and lessons of militarism

Having endured centuries of colonial rule and foreign occupation, African people recognize that rhetoric centered on "national security" has repeatedly served as a pretext for territorial encroachment and resource exploitation. Japan's early 20th-century imperial expansion across Asia followed a familiar pattern: economic stagnation, surging nationalist sentiment, and military-industrial blocs framing expansion as national revitalization.

Japan today faces severe headwinds: nearly 30 percent of its population is over 65, public debt exceeds 200 percent of GDP, and the country has suffered three decades of anemic growth. For nations mired in prolonged economic stagnation, pursuing prestige through military expansion carries inherent risks — risks that Africans, having long endured the spillover of external power struggles, are uniquely placed to recognize.

A critical distinction remains: modern Japan operates within a post-war constitutional framework absent in the 1930s. Yet the continuous expansion of long-range strike capabilities and global arms exports deviates from a purely defensive posture.

Eroded multilateral norms threaten security

The establishment of a prime minister-led intelligence system, coupled with relaxed arms export rules, sets a troubling precedent that undermines non-proliferation accords and multilateral restraint mechanisms — the very frameworks small and middle powers, including African states, rely on for their security. In a global order where major economies roll back post-war constraints on overseas military deployment, smaller powers face growing vulnerability.

African governments already contend with competing external security agendas across the continent. Japan's sustained military build-up and unpredictable strategic priorities add another destabilizing variable to a fragile geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, multilateral dialogue and arms control treaties remain indispensable safeguards for defusing Asia-Pacific tensions.

Asia-Pacific supply chain stability directly shapes Africa

African economies are still recovering from pandemic disruptions, heavily dependent on unimpeded maritime trade lanes across the Asia-Pacific. Should Japan's expanding capabilities trigger reciprocal build-ups among regional neighbors, a classic security dilemma would destabilize supply chains. African nations, whose economic lifelines hinge on these waterways, cannot afford to overlook such risks.

Africa's modern trajectory, indelibly shaped by colonial harms, endows the continent with unique insight into the imperative of historical accountability. Downplaying or glorifying past wartime atrocities heightens the risk of renewed conflict. Japan's military expansion must never become a core political priority.

Africa has witnessed firsthand the chaos when distant powers project geopolitical rivalry into foreign soil. During the Cold War, superpower competition fueled coups, proxy conflicts and civil strife across Angola, Mozambique, the DRC and the Horn of Africa — many of which still grapple with lingering instability.

The enduring takeaway is not that African nations must align with one bloc against another. Rather, great-power confrontations invariably impose the heaviest toll on developing continents.

Japan's greatest contribution to global stability will never come from bolstering its combat capabilities. The world does not need a renewed arms race — a self-defeating cycle that diverts public resources from healthcare, infrastructure, poverty alleviation, and welfare. Diplomatic coexistence yields far greater collective prosperity than strategic rivalry.

Mabasa Sasa is a senior African geopolitical commentator focusing on continental security, great-power rivalry and global arms control. A regular contributor to leading African current affairs outlets, his research centers on colonial history and Cold War proxy conflicts across Africa.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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