Timely forecasts aid jasmine industry

In late May, farmers picked rows of jasmine flowers across fields in Hengzhou, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, as the industry's harvest season commenced. After days of persistent rain across southern China, many growers were left feeling anxious, uncertain of how the weather would impact flower quality and market prices.

Known as China's "hometown of jasmine" and the world's largest jasmine-producing region, Hengzhou has turned to meteorological forecasting as a valuable risk management tool to weatherproof its jasmine industry.

Jasmine flowers, prized for their fragrance and widely used in tea and essential oils, are extremely sensitive to weather conditions. Excessive rainfall can weaken their aroma and reduce quality, while drought conditions and extreme heat can hinder bud development and reduce yields.

"Jasmine is a crop that highly depends on the weather," said Wu Zhifu, manager of Chinese Jasmine Garden, a 667-hectare demonstration plantation in Hengzhou.

"On sunny days, jasmine flowers are more fragrant, and prices are naturally higher. But continuous rainy weather can greatly affect prices," Wu said, adding that flower purchase prices usually rise after three consecutive sunny days without rain.

Hengzhou has about 12,000 hectares of jasmine fields and produces more than 150,000 metric tons of fresh flowers annually. According to local authorities, the industry's annual output value exceeds 23.5 billion yuan ($3.5 billion) and supports the livelihoods of about 340,000 flower growers.

The city produces approximately six of every 10 jasmine flowers globally, said Huang Yazhi, an official with the local jasmine industry service center.

Jasmine products from Hengzhou are exported to more than 20 countries and regions, including Japan, Morocco, the United States, Russia, Malaysia and Singapore, she said.

Weather forecasting is also helping farmers reduce production costs. Wu said a timely rainfall forecast during dry periods can save farmers at least 1,500 yuan per hectare in unnecessary irrigation costs and prevent soil erosion, as well as root damage caused by overwatering ahead of rainstorms.

Flower growers are not the only ones concerned about the weather's effects. The industry's processors and the downstream markets are also potentially at risk.

Wu Yuming, general manager of Xiangxiang Garden, a jasmine-scented products industrial park operated by Guangxi Zhineng Modern Agriculture, said rain can lower flower quality and reduce output, driving up procurement costs for raw materials.

"Freshness is critical for jasmine essential oil extraction, and high temperatures can sharply increase transportation losses," Wu said.

"Summer is the peak consumption season for jasmine products. But if continuous heavy rain causes shortages of raw materials, product prices will rise accordingly," he said.

Wu added that companies now prepare raw material reserves and production schedules in advance based on weather forecasts.

To better support the industry, meteorological departments in Hengzhou and Nanning, the capital of Guangxi, have integrated weather monitoring and forecasting systems into a local digital jasmine platform.

The platform combines data from ground weather stations, radar and numerical forecast models to provide farmers and tea producers with real-time weather information, warnings and agricultural services through their mobile phones.

Gan Li, head of the Hengzhou Meteorological Bureau, said the bureau has developed a rainstorm risk forecast specifically tailored to jasmine flowers.

"We combine observed rainfall from the previous day with current and next-day precipitation forecasts to assess risks to flower harvesting and pricing," Gan said.

He said local authorities have carried out 24 artificial rainfall enhancement operations to ease drought conditions and improve soil moisture for jasmine plantations since 2025.

"We are integrating meteorological services into the digital jasmine platform in a more intelligent and precise way to strengthen support for the jasmine industry," Gan said.