Japan's moves imperil peace

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent visit to Australia, which has hyped up so-called supply chain resilience and critical minerals security, may encourage the formation of exclusive groupings in the Asia-Pacific and undermine regional peace and stability, experts said.

During her visit to Canberra, the two countries signed four separate agreements, including statements on defense, energy and critical minerals cooperation, as well as a joint declaration on "economic security cooperation".

The two sides have also signed a new agreement on critical minerals, saying they would elevate it to a "core pillar" of the economic relationship and identifying six rare earths "strategic projects" that they can support to diversify supply chains.

Last month, Japan and Australia signed contracts to deliver the first three of a $6.5 billion fleet of Japanese-designed Mogami-class frigates.

In her talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Takaichi expressed hope that Japan and Australia will take on a leading role in promoting regional stability under the updated "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" vision, noting that their growing cooperation is effectively evolving into what could be seen as a "quasi-alliance".

She said she discussed issues, including China, with Albanese. However, according to an official statement released on his official website, the Australian prime minister made no mention of the topic.

The Japanese prime minister arrived in Australia on Sunday following a three-day visit to Vietnam, where she held talks on energy and critical minerals.

Japan's efforts to deepen institutionalized energy security cooperation with Australia, effectively forming a "small-circle" framework, can be seen as a geopolitical maneuver under the banner of "economic security", said Liu Shuliang, an associate researcher at the Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences.

"Japan's push to deepen cooperation with Australia appears focused on economic security, but also carries a clear geopolitical dimension aimed at China," he said.

Multiple elements of Japan-Australia collaboration suggest a clear alignment with the United States' "Indo-Pacific Strategy", particularly in the efforts to restructure critical mineral supply chains, consistent with the objectives of the US-led "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity", he added.

In their joint declaration on economic security cooperation, Japan and Australia emphasized concerns about "economic coercion" and committed to "building resilient supply chains".

"This reflects a broader push to align with US-led efforts to diversify and rebalance control over strategic resources," Liu said.

Framed as "economic security", the mechanism risks becoming an exclusive regional bloc that politicizes economic issues, potentially disrupting global supply chains and deepening regional divisions, he added.

Broader objective

Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University in Shanghai, said Japan is using supply chain diversification as a rationale, but its broader objective appears to be to deepen ties with Australia and align more closely with US strategic efforts in the region.

He said Japan is seeking to leverage Australia's natural resources to address its own strategic constraints, while simultaneously advancing security and defense cooperation with Canberra.

"This approach risks blurring the line between economic and security domains, potentially fostering bloc dynamics that could undermine the foundations of long-term open and cooperative development in the Asia-Pacific," he said.

Chen said that from earlier warship contracts to deepening defense and security cooperation, these developments underscore Japan's ongoing push to stretch the constraints of its post-World War II pacifist constitution, expand arms exports, and redefine its role in overseas security, with a view to strengthening its military footprint.

"Under this backdrop, Takaichi's call for strengthening the quasi-alliance between Japan and Australia would send a dangerous signal and risk heightening security concerns across the Asia-Pacific region," he said.

Japan's move is likely to accelerate regional bloc formation, fuel an arms race, undermine peace and stability, and heighten the risk of division and confrontation in the region, Liu from Tianjin added.

Experts said that given the evolving international landscape, Australia must maintain strategic autonomy.

Australia-China relations are in a relatively positive phase, and Australia should take an objective view of China's growing role in promoting peace and development, while avoiding being drawn into geopolitical rivalry and ideological narratives, Liu said.

Australia should place greater emphasis on sustaining pragmatic economic and trade cooperation with China, rather than align with the decoupling attempts in supply chains that risk undermining its own interests, Chen said.

It should support multilateral cooperation and avoid alignment with confrontational frameworks, he added.

Agencies contributed to this story.

liujianqiao@chinadaily.com.cn