Alternatives to Hormuz for energy security

The sustained disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a quarter of the world's oil trade passed daily, long considered a theoretical risk, has now become a distinct possibility. Although the Iranian side stated on Friday that the passage is "completely open" to all commercial vessels, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran are compelling both energy-producing and consuming nations to seriously consider more stable routes for global energy flows.

Although an end to this conflict does not appear imminent, the strongest impetus to conclude it might not be regional stability, but rather the desire to secure a new political achievement. The US president claimed to have ended eight wars in 10 months, and he may now hope to add the Iran war to that list. However, Washington sometimes has to ignite a few fires before volunteering to extinguish them.

Beyond these political calculations, the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, held in Hainan in late March, was a significant opportunity to discuss the future of energy amid these transformations. This discussion gained particular importance given China's substantial progress in both the traditional and renewable energy sectors, alongside the growing economic ties between China and Middle Eastern countries. The Gulf region is a fundamental pillar of the global energy system. The Gulf countries and Iran are major oil and gas producers, with Saudi Arabia being the world's largest oil exporter. In recent years, Riyadh has adopted a pragmatic approach to the energy transition under its Vision 2030 plan. This approach is based on preserving oil's central role in the global economy over the medium term, while gradually investing in clean energy and low-carbon technologies.

Other Gulf states are following a similar path, particularly the United Arab Emirates, which has become a regional hub for investment in renewable energy and low-carbon hydrogen.

Egypt, while not a major energy producer, possesses a unique geographical position between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. This grants it a valuable opportunity to transform into a regional center for energy transit and storage, especially given the major infrastructure projects the country has built in recent years.

With escalating security risks around the Strait of Hormuz, alternative routes for global energy flows have become a strategic necessity. This is where China could emerge as a key player in any new vision for global energy security. It is the world's largest oil importer and the primary trading partner for most Middle Eastern countries.

From this standpoint, one can envision a quadrilateral cooperative framework, capable of expansion, bringing together the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, China as a major energy consumer and infrastructure financier, Egypt as a geographical node for energy transit, and Russia as one of the world's largest oil producers and a key partner in the OPEC+ mechanism that coordinates production levels among major producers.

This cooperation has a realistic geographical foundation. Saudi Arabia is the only Gulf state with a long coastline on the Red Sea. It also already possesses infrastructure allowing it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the East-West Pipeline, which transports oil from the Eastern Province to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

From Yanbu port, oil can be shipped across the Red Sea, through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Indian Ocean, then via the Strait of Malacca to the South China Sea, ultimately reaching Chinese ports. While this route is slightly longer than the traditional one through the Strait of Hormuz, it remains safer during times of geopolitical tension, especially given the significant increase in insurance costs for oil tankers during crises.

Regarding European markets, Egypt could play a pivotal role by expanding the SUMED pipeline, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Increasing the capacity of this line, along with establishing major oil storage facilities on Egypt's northern coast, could transform the country into a regional hub for redistributing oil between Europe and Asia.

Within this partnership, China could play a significant role in financing and developing energy infrastructure, whether through expanding pipelines, developing ports, or building storage tanks. Chinese companies have extensive experience in constructing pipelines and digital monitoring systems, which could enhance the safety and efficiency of new energy transit networks.

Thus, two main energy corridors could emerge: the first is a route transporting Gulf oil directly to Asian markets via the Red Sea and Indian Ocean; the second is a corridor linking the Gulf to European markets through Egypt and the Mediterranean. With the expansion of these alternative routes, relative dependence on the Strait of Hormuz could be reduced, transforming it from the main bottleneck in global oil trade into one of several energy pathways.

Russia could also contribute to this initiative through its extensive experience in building and operating pipelines, alongside continued coordination among major producers within the OPEC+ framework to ensure the stability of the global energy market.

Alongside the oil sector, cooperation in clean energy could form a second pillar of this partnership. China is the world leader in low-carbon energy, possessing the largest installed renewable energy capacity globally. It is also the world's largest producer of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries used for energy storage.

The importance of this cooperation is heightened by the significant natural potential for solar energy in the region's countries, as areas like Saudi Arabia and Egypt are among the sunniest in the world.

However, there is also a security dimension. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has witnessed recurring disruptions to international navigation in recent years. Securing this strait may require limited defensive cooperation focused on protecting shipping lanes and energy flows without becoming entangled in regional conflicts.

Recent developments have only deepened the problem rather than resolving it: a ceasefire that failed to end the conflict after the collapse of the Islamabad negotiations, and the US' imposition of a naval blockade on the strait — even though the strait had remained open before the US-Israeli military strikes.

Besides, as the United States has shifted from being a consumer to a competitor of producer nations, it now seeks to expand its market share and tighten its grip on energy trade, using it as leverage against China amid Beijing's growing economic influence — not only in energy but also in technology, rare earths, and clean energy.

The answer may lie in a new model of cooperation based on shared development, energy security, and regional stability — in line with the Chinese wisdom of interweaving the interests of all parties rather than fuelling conflict.

The author is the editor-in-chief and the co-founder of the Center for Arab Eurasian Studies.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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