Carney secures majority as Canada-US trade tensions persist

The Liberal Party of Canada has secured a parliamentary majority after winning three by-elections on Monday, though experts say domestic political strength does not necessarily translate into leverage with the United States.

The wins bring the Liberal Party of Canada to 174 seats, giving them a majority in the House of Commons and greater control over the legislative process.

"This will have no impact on dealing with the US or on any other policy issue," said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto.

"The Liberals have been governing since last year's election as if they won a majority," he said, adding that this limits the practical significance of the shift.

He told China Daily that the government's position has remained stable in part because opposition parties have little incentive to force an early election.

"The public does not want an election and will punish a party that brings down the government," Wiseman said.

Instead, the main impact of a majority would be procedural, particularly in Parliament's committee system, where opposition parties currently hold sway.

"What a Liberal majority can do that a Liberal minority cannot is become the majority party on parliamentary committees," Wiseman said.

He noted that opposition-controlled committees have the ability to delay legislation, a constraint that would ease under Liberal control.

"With Liberal control of the committees, legislation will pass much more quickly," he said.

Recent trade talks between the US and Canada appear to have stalled, with US trade representative Jamieson Greer saying he does not expect negotiations on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) to be concluded by July 1.

"I doubt that having a majority government would make a difference in negotiations, which are largely done behind the scenes, and not visible to the public," said Ronald Stagg, a history professor at Toronto Metropolitan University.

Stagg said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's professional background would shape his approach more than parliamentary arithmetic.

"With his business background Carney will work for the best deal possible," he told China Daily.

Still, a majority could provide political insulation domestically.

"Having a majority would protect the government from any adverse reaction in Canada to the outcome," Stagg said.

He added that domestic political strength does not necessarily translate into leverage in dealings with Washington.

"Donald Trump and his negotiating team are not going to say that the Canadian government has to give in because it does not represent all Canadians, i.e. is weak," Stagg said. "The Carney government will negotiate in the belief that it has the backing of Canadians."

"While a majority would look better on the world stage, whether or not the government has a majority, it is going to act as if it has one," he said.

He noted that Ottawa is expected to continue expanding ties beyond the United States.

"It will continue to push for increased relations and trade with both Europe and Asia, recognizing that the previous close relationship with the US is not guaranteed in the future, even after Donald Trump is gone," Stagg said.

Stagg said that this shift reflects a broader trend among so-called middle powers seeking to diversify partnerships.

"Other nations which would be considered middle powers are also anxious to establish relationships that do not depend on the United States," he said.

At the same time, tensions in bilateral trade talks underscore the challenges facing the relationship.

"Clearly the United States government feels that it is easier to resolve issues with Mexico than with Canada," Stagg said, adding that it remains unclear whether this reflects a "divide and conquer strategy" or a sequencing of negotiations.

"Donald Trump has said that the United States needs nothing from Canada (a bargaining position) and is adamant that Canada must give in on certain issues such as supply management," Stagg said, and such remarks have caused strain.

"He has not taken a similar position with Mexico, so, definitely, trade relations with the United States are not going well," he said.