Japan's deafening silence on the Iran conflict: Vulnerability, hypocrisy, and blind subservience

Following the joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran announced its control over the Strait of Hormuz, sending international crude oil prices soaring.

This geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has made Japan — a nation with an exceedingly high dependence on foreign energy — one of the hardest-hit economies outside the region. It has also laid bare Japan's deep-seated predicament: abandoning an independent national strategy in favor of blind allegiance to the United States.

The current economic shocks and security risks confronting Japan are by no means accidental external crises; they are the inevitable outcome of its strategic misdirection.

Japan's survival vulnerability stems from its extremely fragile energy structure. Data show that Japan's crude oil self-sufficiency rate is less than one percent. Over 92 percent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East, and more than 80 percent of its shipping must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the calculation by the Japan Research Institute, if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked for an extended period, Japan's annual GDP would shrink by three percent.

Data from Nomura Research Institute indicate that for every $10 increase in international oil price per barrel, Japan's annual energy import costs would rise by 1.3 trillion yen, directly driving up household electricity bills as well as industrial and logistics costs. Pillar industries such as automotive, electronics, chemicals and shipping face the risk of production cuts or shutdowns.

For Japan, still mired in its "three lost decades", turmoil in the Middle East is not a distant fire, but a pressing crisis burning at its own doorstep. Safeguarding energy security and maintaining stability in the Middle East should have been Japan's core tasks. Yet the Japanese government has set aside justice, abandoned national interests, and chosen to blindly follow the United States instead. Japan, which habitually preaches "rule of law" and "order" has remained conspicuously silent on the instigator of the crisis.

From the prime minister to the foreign minister, Tokyo has condemned Iran only and called on it to de-escalate the situation. Such an extremely irresponsible stance has sparked fierce criticism at home.

On March 11, Yamaoka Tatsumaru, a member of the House of Representatives from the Centrist Reform Alliance, raised a question in the Diet, directly pointing to the lack of fairness in Japan's diplomacy.

Yamaoka noted that Iran was the party subject to a preemptive strike, yet when Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, he merely urged Iran to de-escalate the situation — a stance clearly lacking impartiality.

Yamaoka specifically mentioned that during the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, Araghchi, who served as Iran's ambassador to Japan then, chose to stay in Japan despite the earthquake, stating in an interview that "true friends are those who stand by Japan in times of hardship". In 2022, Araghchi was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star, making him a symbolic figure of the Japan-Iran friendship.

Japan should have leveraged this relationship to secure its oil lifeline, rather than blindly following the US at the expense of a crucial diplomatic asset. In response to the questioning, Motegi merely argued that he had also spoken with the Israeli foreign minister and made the same appeal, still evading the core issue of how to deal with Washington.

At this point, the chamber erupted with loud shouts of "Why not demand that the US de-escalate?" — a question that directly exposed the hypocrisy of the Japanese government's diplomacy. Motegi responded by asking "quiet please". But even if the chamber fell silent, would the questions in people's minds disappear?

According to a readout released by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Araghchi told Motegi during the call that "the Islamic Republic of Iran stands with full strength and determination against the military aggression of the US and the Zionist regime and will defend itself".

"However, this does not negate the responsibility of the international community, including Japan, to explicitly condemn this military aggression and the war crimes committed by the aggressors." One can imagine the complex emotions Araghchi must have felt when he spoke these words. And how can Japan face its Iranian friend who stood by Japan in times of peril?

In fact, Japan's strategic subservience to the US has long permeated every domain in its society including its economy and security. In exchange for a temporary reprieve from US tariffs, Japan signed an investment agreement dubbed the "unequal treaty of the Reiwa era", pledging $550 billion in investment in the US, with project control and most profits going to the latter — essentially a transfusion of capital to America's re-industrialization.

Japan's defense budget for fiscal year 2026 has exceeded nine trillion yen, a substantial portion of which will be spent on expensive US weaponry, turning Japan's defense budget into a "cash cow" for the US military-industrial complex.

More ironically, while Japan has increased funding for US troops stationed in on its soil year after year, Japanese media have reported that US military vessels based in Japan have been redeployed to the Middle East to participate in strikes against Iran.

These US troops which claim to "defend Japan" have proven to treat Japan merely as an "inn" that they can check out whenever they please, with Tokyo having no say in the matter whatsoever.

History has once again laid bare that blindly hitching a nation's fate to the US chariot while neglecting its own core interests will ultimately end in sacrifice at the hands of the hegemon.

If Japan wishes to get out of the crisis, it must abandon the mindset of strategic subservience and return to an independent diplomacy centered on national interests. Failing that, the only future awaiting it is one of continued decline.

The author is a commentator on international affairs.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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