Those who watch power carefully, see Asia's rise

The shift in the center of gravity of the global economy is no longer an analytical hypothesis — it has become a measurable reality across the main indicators of growth, trade and investment.

Today, Asia generates well over 60 percent of global growth and accounts for more than half of world output in purchasing power parity. Yet these figures capture only the surface of a far deeper structural reorientation.

Asia has become the principal locus of global manufacturing value chains. It hosts some of the most sophisticated logistics networks ever constructed and is leading the largest infrastructure expansion in modern history. Ports, rail corridors, energy grids, and digital connectivity do more than facilitate trade — they are redesigning the spatial logic of economic interaction.

Simultaneously, Asia is undergoing the most extensive urban transformation humanity has witnessed. Within a single generation, hundreds of millions have entered metropolitan economies, expanding labor markets, accelerating productivity, and fostering dense innovation ecosystems.

Equally consequential is the technological dimension of this shift. Asian economies are no longer primarily adopters of innovation; increasingly, they are shaping the technological frontier itself. The geography of invention is becoming more plural — and with it, the distribution of economic influence.

At the center of this transformation stands China. China's distinctive role lies less in sheer size than in its capacity to combine industrial depth, technological ambition, financial resources, and long-term strategic coordination. Over recent decades, the country has evolved from a pivotal supplier within global production networks into a dual engine of supply and demand, increasingly capable of influencing the rhythm of international economic activity.

Perhaps even more significant is China's contribution to regional connectivity. Through infrastructure expansion and deepening trade integration, it has reinforced the material foundations upon which Asia can transition from a manufacturing hub into a fully articulated economic sphere — one defined not merely by export dynamism but by internal demand and cross-border interdependence.

Yet interpreting Asia's rise as the straightforward replacement of one hegemon by another would be analytically misleading. The United States remains unparalleled in technological innovation, financial influence and military power, and the dollar continues to anchor the international monetary system. Yet hegemony is not measured solely by the accumulation of resources; it also depends on the capacity to organize predictability. It is precisely this ordering function that has grown more diffuse amid trade fragmentation, technological rivalry and the increasing politicization of supply chains.

The trajectory ahead is therefore unlikely to be defined by rupture. It is far more likely to be characterized by coexistence. Established and emerging centers of power typically overlap before a new equilibrium takes shape. Such periods are rarely stable; they are negotiated — between established rules and evolving practices, inherited institutions and newly forming ones.

One of the defining tensions of this era may lie precisely in the coexistence of integration and fragmentation. Supply chains expand even as strategic competition intensifies. Financial flows remain globally interconnected, yet economic security increasingly shapes policy decisions. Technological cooperation persists alongside technological rivalry.

Major historical inflections seldom announce themselves with clarity. They begin as quiet displacements, perceptible above all to those able to read beneath the surface the deeper transformations reshaping power and economic organization." In history, the future rarely surprises — it surprises only those who failed to notice when it began.

Maria Luiza Falcão Silva is a member of the Brazilian Association of Economists for Democracy (ABED) and of the Brazil-China Group on Climate Change Economics (GBCMC) at Neasia/University of Brasília (UnB). 

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