Sustainable development

China-Central Asia partnership is a testament to the power of non-politicized, mutually beneficial cooperation in fostering a more equitable economic order

According to Chinese Customs data, bilateral trade between China and the five Central Asian countries reached $106.3 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12 percent. Exports totaled $71.2 billion, up 11 percent year-on-year, and imports totaled $35.1 billion, up 14 percent year-on-year. This marks the first time in 34 years, since diplomatic relations were established in January 1992, that the bilateral trade volume has exceeded $100 billion. It is also the first time since 2023, when China became the largest trading partner of Central Asia, that China is simultaneously the largest trading partner for all five Central Asian countries.

These two milestones are both commendable and well-earned. With infrastructure and industrial upgrades, as well as the infusion of new dynamics through the service trade, green trade and digital trade, there is huge potential in further growth of bilateral trade. Trade and investment cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries is not just about importing and exporting goods; more importantly, it involves using goods to drive the reconstruction of new industries and value chains, and exploring solutions for new industrialization. For example, integration models such as artificial intelligence, photovoltaic agriculture and small hydropower aquaculture turn each party’s advantages into development momentum.

The annual trade scale of both sides had already steadied between $40 billion and $50 billion before the COVID-19 pandemic. After 2022, it rose to a new level each year ($70.2 billion in 2022, $89.4 billion in 2023, $94.8 billion in 2024 and $106.3 billion in 2025). Trade between China and the five Central Asian countries in 2025 exhibited rapid growth in scale, optimized structure and diverse forms. Central Asia is one of the fastest-growing regions for China’s foreign trade, and the trade structure is moving toward newer and better quality goods. The share of electromechanical products in exports exceeds 55 percent, and the market share of the “new trio” — electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells — continues to expand steadily. Non-resource products such as chemicals, steel and agricultural products are driving the diversification of the import structure.

New business formats are also booming. Cross-border e-commerce trade has reached $800 million, with a growth rate exceeding 20 percent. The warehousing and logistics system, including overseas warehouses, border warehouses, cross-border payment and China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains, is continuously improving. New models such as “freight train+overseas warehouse” and “freight train+cross-border e-commerce” provide strong support for trade growth.

The growth of trade between China and the five Central Asian countries is not caused by external circumstances, but by the increased endogenous demand of both sides. This is mainly attributed to leadership guidance, the solid foundation in institutional mechanisms, strategic alignment and investment synergy.

First, with confidence and consensus continually deepening, leaders on all sides have emphasized the need for unity and cooperation, the implementation of open policies and the importance of developing overseas markets, avoiding bloc confrontation, not decoupling supply chains and opposing coercive sanctions. It is because both sides do not politicize economic issues, while an atmosphere of being good neighbors, good friends and good partners prevails, that the cooperation environment maintains stability. Therefore, it has become a model for upholding genuine multilateralism, promoting inclusive and equitable economic globalization and opposing hegemony.

Second, the foundation for cooperation is solid, with comprehensive support ranging from institutional mechanisms to infrastructure. In addition to the intergovernmental cooperation committee, multilateral cooperation mechanisms such as the China-Central Asia mechanism and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have been increasingly consolidated. Policy and standard coordination between the two sides is smooth, and trade regulations are becoming progressively more complete. By 2025, approved flights between the two sides totaled 286 per week (counting round trips as two), and most of the 11 open border crossings in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region between China and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan operate 24/7 throughout the week. Road transportation is busy; the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is under construction; and the third railway between China and Kazakhstan is being built. China-Europe (Central Asia) freight trains run day and night, and the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline and China-Turkmenistan natural gas pipeline operate continuously.

Third, the partnership is strategically aligned, with both sides viewing each other’s modernization as a mutual opportunity. Central Asia is experiencing medium-to-high growth averaging over 6 percent since 2022, driven by sectors such as green energy, the digital economy and advanced manufacturing. China serves as both a cost-effective supplier and a large-scale market, absorbing growing Central Asian exports even amid falling global energy prices — evidenced by imports rising from $27.9 billion in 2022 to $35.1 billion in 2025.

Fourth, investment acts as a key trade driver. Chinese capital, contracts and projects stimulate demand for related goods and services. By mid-2025, China’s cumulative direct investment in the Central Asian countries — mostly in raw materials, manufacturing and infrastructure — reached $35.9 billion, with about 13,000 Chinese enterprises operating across the region. Contracted project values exceeded $120 billion by April 2025, spanning energy, transport, and the green and digital sectors, while outstanding loans stood at $16.24 billion by the end of 2025, creating a sustained cycle of investment-led trade growth.

In all, the breakthrough $100 billion milestone in China-Central Asia trade in 2025 represents far more than a statistical achievement; it is the culmination of a deep, structural partnership built on shared strategic vision, complementary development needs and resilient institutional frameworks. This growth — driven by high-quality exports, diversified imports and innovative trade formats — defies reductive geopolitical narratives and instead reflects an endogenous economic synergy.

Anchored by leadership consensus, robust infrastructure connectivity and significant investment integration, the relationship has evolved from traditional goods exchange into a collaborative model for industrial upgrading and regional modernization. As both sides advance their national rejuvenation agendas, this partnership stands as a concrete testament to the power of non-politicized, mutually beneficial cooperation in fostering sustainable development and a more equitable economic order.

The author is the director of the Central Asian Studies at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.